NEW YORK (November 23, 2021) — With rising concerns about inflation and its impact on America’s unsustainable budget outlook, and as Congress advances major legislation, U.S. fiscal confidence fell to its lowest level since September 2014, according to the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s newest monthly index. The Fiscal Confidence Index, modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 41 (100 is neutral), indicating that voters across party lines are deeply concerned about our nation’s fiscal outlook and what it means for our economic recovery.
Nearly 8 in 10 voters (79%) say their concern about the national debt has increased, with 62% believing leaders are on the wrong track addressing the issue — the highest percentage this year. Nearly three in four voters (73% agree/20% disagree) say that the national debt should be a top-three priority for the president and Congress, including 65% of Democrats (26% disagree), 68% of independents (20% disagree), and 87% of Republicans (10% disagree).
“This seven-year low in our fiscal confidence index is a clear sign that voters are concerned about our nation’s fiscal sustainability, and Congress should keep this in mind as they shape major budget legislation,” said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation. “The Congressional Budget Office finds that the bill is not fully paid for, and worse yet it is riddled with budget gimmicks that can hide its true cost. Amid rising concerns about inflation and our overall economic recovery, lawmakers have an important opportunity to make this bill more sustainable and responsible, to lessen the burden our growing debt places on the next generation.”
The Fiscal Confidence Index measures public opinion about the national debt by asking six questions in three key areas:
- CONCERN: Level of concern and views about the direction of the national debt.
- PRIORITY: How high a priority addressing the debt should be for elected leaders.
- EXPECTATIONS: Expectations about whether the debt situation will get better or worse in the next few years.
The survey results from these three areas are weighted equally and averaged to produce the Fiscal Confidence Index value. The Fiscal Confidence Index, like the Consumer Confidence Index, is indexed on a scale of 0 to 200, with a neutral midpoint of 100. A reading above 100 indicates positive sentiment. A reading below 100 indicates negative sentiment.
Fiscal Confidence Index Key Data Points:
- The November 2021 Fiscal Confidence Index value is 41. (The October value was 45. The September value was 43.)
- The current Fiscal Confidence Index score for CONCERN about the debt is 36, indicating deep concern about the debt. The score for debt as a PRIORITY that leaders must address is 30, indicating that Americans want elected leaders to make addressing long-term debt a high priority. The score for EXPECTATIONS about progress on the debt is 56. The Fiscal Confidence Index is the average of these three sub-category scores.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned this poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The online poll included 1,000 registered voters nationwide, surveyed between November 15, 2021 and November 17, 2021. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The poll examined voters’ opinions on the national debt, political leadership, and America’s fiscal and economic health.
Detailed poll results can be found here.